Just 60 days ago that the young forward found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while Unai Emery scolded him for missing a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team went six without a win, the question was whether his performances were a symptom or the source for the side's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. When Rogers drilled in his second to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row and having failed to win any of their first six matches, now sit only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
That’s an exceptionally difficult question to address. History, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa had an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a team who have just won ten consecutive victories, they seem strangely fragile – however at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping their star man to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and once more when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike originated from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the post from a wide position. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival they have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, cannot maintain drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists another reality in which, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder now would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
